On Tue, 27 Jan 1998, Tom Robison wrote:

> The bottom line to this train of thought is, what would the world be like
> today if the Spanish-American War had not occurred?

Fascinating speculation. Without Far Eastern/WestPac territories gained
from Spain in 1898, in particular Guam and the Philippines, US would
have been much less concerned about Japanese expansionism before
mid-1930s. Japan, similarly less concerned about US reactions, might
have remained focussed on solidifying control over Manchuria despite Red
Army opposition.

By 1939, US and Japan would not face war with each other. Japan might
become an at least tacit anti-USSR ally of UK and/or US in 1939 when
Germany and Russia became allies. After Barbarossa, Japan might seize
Vladivostok and other parts of SE Siberia.

Without Pearl Harbor raid, US war against Nazi Germany would have been
delayed: possibly only until 1942 (eg, over U-boat ops, or from concern
over 1942 Nazi advances in SE USSR); possibly for years (eg, until
German siege might threaten to defeat UK unless US intervened, or to
grab parts of Germany to prevent USSR occupation of western Europe).

Assuming that the USSR achieved peace with Germany about 1946 either
through defeat (the actual event, of course) or accommodation, the USSR
and Japan would have had a major land war in Siberia soon thereafter.
The USA and Japan might become allies (US concern over communist
advances in China) or enemies (US concern over Japanese intervention in
China).

Any other ideas?

—